In the realm of fantasy baseball, uncovering overlooked talent is paramount to achieving success. While early-round selections are crucial, discovering impactful contributors in later rounds can dramatically elevate a team's standing. This analysis focuses on identifying starting pitchers who are currently being underestimated in drafts, drawing upon a proven methodology to pinpoint potential breakouts.
The strategy for identifying these undervalued pitchers is rooted in a core principle: in 12-team leagues, a significant percentage of undrafted pitchers ultimately secure a place among the top 108 starters, with a notable portion even reaching top 25 season-long value. This highlights the importance of scrutinizing pitchers drafted outside these initial tiers. The key characteristics sought in these potential gems include the capacity to pitch 130 or more innings, a strong strikeout potential driven by effective secondary pitches, a reliable fastball velocity, and a diverse arsenal of at least three distinct pitches.
One such pitcher under consideration is Braxton Ashcraft of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite a history of injuries, Ashcraft demonstrated his ability to pitch 118 innings last season, making a 130-inning target achievable. His 24% strikeout rate, supported by a potent slider that effectively generates swings and misses against both right-handed and left-handed batters, indicates significant strikeout upside. However, his four-seam fastball, though sitting at 97 mph, is a point of concern due to its below-average extension and flat trajectory. The inclusion of a sinker to right-handed hitters, which limits hard contact and induces whiffs, could be crucial for his overall effectiveness. Ashcraft's five-pitch mix, though primarily four effective pitches, provides variety, but his approach to left-handed hitters with a less effective four-seam fastball warrants attention. While showing promise, his confidence to finish in the top 25 is rated at 2/10, primarily due to the lack of overwhelming strikeout potential and team dynamics.
Sean Manaea, now with the New York Mets, presents another intriguing case. Having previously logged 181.1 innings in 2024 and ranking as the 21st starting pitcher by FanGraph's Player Rater, his capacity for high volume is well-established. Even in a challenging 2025 season, Manaea maintained a respectable 28.5% strikeout rate and a 14.1% swinging-strike rate, attributed in part to his four-seam fastball against righties and a sweeper that excels against lefties. His fastball combination, featuring a four-seamer for swings and misses and a sinker for early-count strikes, forms a solid foundation. Manaea's deep pitch mix, historically utilizing four to six pitches, is vital to his success. His confidence to finish in the top 25 stands at 5/10, given his proven track record and the Mets' potential reliance on him for innings.
Zebby Matthews, of the Minnesota Twins, is also highlighted. With 116 innings pitched last year despite injuries and 134.2 innings in 2024, he is well-positioned to approach 150 innings this season and secure a rotation spot. His slider is a standout pitch, boasting a 22% swinging-strike rate and effectiveness against both sides of the plate. While his fastball is not elite, its consistent command and three variations provide a good foundation. Matthews' comprehensive four-pitch mix to both right-handed and left-handed batters offers a strong strategic advantage. His confidence to break into the top 25 is rated at 4/10, suggesting a strong underlying potential that could be unlocked with minor refinements.
Parker Messick from the Cleveland Guardians is another name to watch. Despite not being a projected starter at the season's outset, his superior performance with a 2.72 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 39.2 MLB innings last year, combined with over 130 innings pitched in both 2024 and 2025, suggests his innings will not be capped if he secures a rotation spot. Messick, a left-hander with an exceptional changeup, shows considerable strikeout upside, especially against right-handed hitters. His four-seam fastball, though only 93 mph, plays up due to good vertical movement and a flat attack angle, making it an effective pitch. His deep five-pitch mix, particularly against righties, enhances his potential. Messick's confidence to finish in the top 25 is also 4/10, with his starting spot being the primary variable.
Andrew Painter of the Philadelphia Phillies, returning from Tommy John surgery, projects to surpass 130 innings. His fastball, which touched triple-digits in the minors, combined with a plus slider and developing changeup, offers substantial strikeout potential. While his four-seam fastball, despite its velocity, has room for improvement in command and elevation, his six-pitch mix provides a deep arsenal. Painter's confidence to finish in the top 25 is assessed at 5/10, reflecting his high upside if he can successfully transition to MLB action. Ian Seymour of the Tampa Bay Rays, despite previous bullpen usage, has a history of starting and ample innings capacity. His changeup is a lethal weapon against both right-handed and left-handed hitters, complemented by a versatile fastball. His deep five-pitch mix against lefties makes him a compelling breakout candidate, with a 5/10 confidence for a top 25 finish.
Reid Detmers of the Los Angeles Angels, a former top prospect, has demonstrated the ability to pitch 130+ innings. His late-season 2025 performance, featuring a 2.45 ERA and 33% strikeout rate, highlights his potential. His slider is particularly effective against lefties, and his strategic use of a curveball to set up his fastball and slider enhances his strikeout capabilities. While his four-seam fastball is adequate, his varied approach suggests a strong foundation. Detmers' deep pitch mix, including the potential return of his changeup, strengthens his profile. His confidence to finish in the top 25 is 5/10, indicating that his time in the bullpen may have refined his approach. Zach Eflin of the Baltimore Orioles, returning from back surgery, is projected for 150-170 innings. His 2023 strikeout rate and two effective breaking pitches suggest a reasonable strikeout potential. His primary use of a sinker and cutter, both adept at limiting hard contact and generating groundballs, forms a solid base. Eflin's six-pitch mix against righties and five pitches against lefties showcases a deep and versatile arsenal. His confidence for a top 25 finish is 4/10, leaning more towards a solid top 50 performance. Lastly, Jacob Latz of the Texas Rangers, while undrafted, has a realistic path to 130-150 innings. His appealing 14.6% swinging-strike rate, driven by an excellent changeup against right-handed hitters, offers strikeout growth potential. His solid fastball with elite vertical break is a key asset. While his pitch mix is somewhat less diversified against lefties, the strength of his fastball and changeup provides a strong foundation. Latz's confidence for a top 25 finish is 2/10, requiring significant improvement against left-handed batters.
This detailed examination of lesser-known starting pitchers offers a roadmap for fantasy baseball enthusiasts seeking to identify hidden value. By carefully considering their innings potential, strikeout capabilities, fastball effectiveness, and pitch diversity, one can uncover significant contributors who are poised to exceed expectations and deliver substantial fantasy returns.